Las Vegas Real Estate Blog

Las Vegas pending single family sales were at 2234 on May first (we officially closed 1794 units for April – the preceding 30 days), 2542 on June first (we officially closed 2026 for May) and we have 2591 pending sales today (we unofficially closed 2116 units in June).

If that holds up, not only has each month in 2008 seen more closings than the month before, and we are still better than 2007 for the third month in a row and pulling away, but also it would be the first time since 2005 that June saw more closings than May.

Also, with pendings strong, IF we close 2100 Single Family deals in July we will be ahead of 2006. That would put us in striking distance of the slow months (October thru January) during the “Boom” of 2004 and 2005 when single family closing numbers ranged between 1985 (in Jan of 05) and 2604 (Oct of 2004).

That may not happen if 2008 tails off in the fall as most years do. Or, it could happen, since we have many more people in Las Vegas who haven’t bought anything in 3 years, we should be doing numbers comparable to those given the growth, and the banks are feeding excess foreclosures slowly into the market, so I hear, and FHA transactions are up 2000% since January 2008 (so I heard last Friday from Jeremy Dougherty, area VP with Countrywide).

What I think the official GLVAR numbers show is that Las Vegas closing numbers below 1000 per month (October 2007 thru Jan 2008) represent the bottom as far as demand is concerned.

We are building sales with one arm tied behind our backs, namely, the average guy is still not fully back in the game – FHA makes you declare your tips, and some people don’t want to yet.

When the new president announces that he is here to save the economy and Congress decides they need to save their jobs, Las Vegas will run short of houses in 2010.

Buy Low, Sell High.

Home owners across the country are starting to realize that in many cases, the value of their home is not going to recover in time to refinance out of their adjustable rate mortgage. Homeowners were told by the lender they would be able to refinance their home when their has adjusted. What many lenders failed to tell the homeowner is they would only be able to refinance if the home value goes up. Now home owners who will not be able to make the new payment are looking for alternatives to remain homeowners. Some are choosing to “Buy and Bail” as the media has called it.The home owners who were given a bad loan are now giving their house back to the bank, but only after they get a good loan on a similar house for half the price. Las Vegas leading consumer advocates and Realtors Kendall Trotter and Steve Hawks discuss this recent homeowner phenomena and possible repercussions.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i49d0oP3gpI

Doom and gloom surrounds the local and national real estate headlines, but pending and contingent sales figures have seen a dramatic increase (as noted in other posts). Similarly, high-end luxury homes in Las Vegas have not seen a decline in value, but rather a dramatic increase. Ultra high-end luxury homes are considered homes with a sales value over $1.5 million. Buyers above that mark seem not to be affected by the tightening of credit in the Jumbo mortgage loan market.

Interestingly, the market between $700,000 to $1.5 million (or around the $1 million range) will probably face yet more declination of value. Steve Hawks is anticipating what he has called a “million dollar massacre”, as Jumbo mortgages for these borrowers are tough to qualify for, hard to fund, and surrounded by a shadow of FBI investigation due to mortgage fraud. With a lack of qualified borrowers and increased scrutiny, these properties may see values continue to drop.

Read more on this subject, an interview with Steve Hawks, and insight into other aspects of the current Las Vegas Real Estate market at the Review Journal.

Prices increase in high-end housing market while sales stay steady

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