Las Vegas Real Estate Blog

“I will spend the weekend working with members of Congress of both parties to examine approaches to alleviate the pressure of these bad loans on our system, so credit can flow once again to American consumers and companies,” Henry Paulson (Us Treasury Secretary) told CNN Friday.

I have previously said that “after the elections, the government will ride in on a white horse and save us from the economy.” Looks like they decided to do it now. I had expected improvement in the spring, in general, and in Las Vegas when City Center and friends begin hiring in the months prior to the 2009 opening of their multi-billion dollar complexes.

Some experts are saying a recovery in prices will take years. Some cite a new round of foreclosures to come as the October ARM’s reset. I am not too sure that anyone is an expert on the uncharted waters they say the economy is now in.

Yes, I think it will take a long time for some areas of the country (Northeast rust belt, Florida hurricane country, etc) to come back. I think some areas will come back first, like places with no snow, plenty of solar energy, and no income taxes, but I am biased in favor of my favorite city-state.

In the short run, whenever you see the signs of recovery that appeal to you, be light on your feet. If you must sell, know what you need to get and get it while you can. If you want to buy, you may want to buy before the last of the foreclosures is gone. They say none of this has ever happened before. They also say real estate is on a 5 year cycle. Sale numbers have been declining since 2004, that makes 2009 the fifth year. But, anything could happen – that’s why they call these waters “uncharted.” In sales, we call that creating a sense of urgency.

After the elections, I bet the new administration will continue to monkey with the economy so they can claim some credit for saving us when their second term rolls around. I think the Treasury understands that the lenders have to loan money to average buyers since lenders have artificially stymied demand for over a year thus shooting everyone in the foot, but who knows. It could be a bumpy ride for a while. When the bumps hit the international community, a certain percentage of foreign money will come here, as it already has, because in times of turmoil we are still a relatively safe haven. The demographics driving the economy of the South West have not changed. And what if we end the war in Iraq and give the troops a little R and R ahead of Syria and Iran? Is the country ready for a psychological make over or what?

In the long run, we need a rational energy plan (T Boone Pickens Plan could be one), a rational immigration plan (maybe even speak some English, have some car insurance, try to abide by the laws of the land as much as the rest of us, and keep out those with criminal records), some reasonable regulation of Wall Street’s greed, and we need a lot of people with jobs who can buy houses so that other people can sell houses. Most of all we need to recreate confidence in America.

I think we will do this.